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Abstract


ANALYZING THE IMPACT OF CIRCULAR MIGRATION ON FOREIGN TRADE WITH GRAVITY MODEL: THE CASE OF TURKEY
Circular migrations are repetitive back and forth migratory movements between a receiving country and a sending country. There may be circular activities within a country or between countries; also these migrations can occur as a divided form into skill levels, job postings and sectors. In addition to geographical proximity, historical and cultural ties between countries have a great importance for a circular migration activity. This is also the case for Turkey. In this study, we investigated the impact on the total volume of foreign trade, export and import activites of migrants, who came from border countries which are close ties with Turkey culturally and historically, by employing extended panel gravity model. In the gravity model of the study, non-interval data of 10 countries covering the period between 2013 and 2017 were used with the panel GMM (Generalized Method of Moments) EGLS (Estimated Generalized Least Square) method. The results showed that the circular migration to Turkey is not statistically significant on Turkey’s imports and exports but has a positive and statistically significant effect on foreign trade.

Keywords
circular migration, import, export, Turkish Economy, globalization


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